[SMM Analysis] This Week in the Hydrometallurgy Recycling Market: Ternary Black Mass Prices Held Steady, While LFP Black Mass Prices Fluctuated (2025.12.29-2025.12.31)

SMM December 31:

This week, cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices started to rise, while lithium carbonate prices fluctuated.

Recently, spot and futures prices for lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the beginning of the week also fell within the period for just-in-time procurement before the month-end and the Chinese New Year. LFP black mass prices per % lithium fluctuated with lithium chemicals this week. However, upstream grinding enterprises, after observing lithium carbonate supply-demand and policies, were relatively optimistic about future prices. Prices also adjusted with futures, showing a strong increase. Taking LFP pole piece black mass as an example, the current price is 4,700-5,000 yuan/mtu, up WoW. Taking ternary black mass as another example: the current nickel and cobalt payables for ternary pole piece black mass are 76.5-78.5%, up 0.5% WoW, while lithium payables are 74-77%, basically flat MoM. The main reasons were that cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices continued to rise this week, and LCO black mass supply was relatively limited. Currently, most enterprises have relatively limited cobalt inventory, and after clearing out old stock, they had to purchase new material from smelters. Currently, producing cobalt-based products from recycled black mass offers some profit, so multiple enterprises switched production lines in H2, leading to a further tightening of pure cobalt black mass supply and pushing prices higher. The price increases for salt products gradually transmitted costs to the ternary and LCO sectors, driving up the payables and prices for both ternary and LCO black mass.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lu Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711